With Scoop trying to steal my thunder by analyzing trades, I felt compelled to put together another ATR to remind him, who is the real analyzer of CDL trades. (And my analysis of the Twins/Indians trade will put Scoop’s analysis to shame.) The ATR!
California receives LF Dwight Evans, 2B Scott Fletcher, 3B German Rivera and P Guy Hoffman.
St. Louis receives 3B Denny Walling, P Dickie Noles and California’s first round Amateur draft choice in 1987.
Well, analyzing trades a week or two after they go down gives me different insight about the deals. I try to avoid things like California having the best record in the league coloring my judgment about a deal, but it does. Though in this case, the ATR has always believed that California would be a playoff team and one that will probably advance to the ALCS before falling to the Red Sox or the Twins. Evans is a good outfielder, both at the plate and in the field. I think it is too often written that there are a lot of good outfielders in the league, but recently I have started to believe that is not the case. Evans has also enjoyed a strong start this year and might be playing a bit over his head, but he can cover ground and should destroy lefties while not embarrassing himself versus righties. That is a pretty valuable player, especially at only $3,000,000 a season. Fletcher is a respectable utility player, he can play both SS and 2B without embarrassing himself and has a passable stick for someone who doesn’t need to start. German Rivera is a rather odd player. I doubt many teams would stick him out there and see if he could be a starting third baseman. But the Angels have done so and won more than their fair share of games while doing so. However, Rivera is a solid bench player stretched as a starter, especially as a corner infielder. Guy Hoffman is a reliever…the kind of reliever you can take in the draft, stick out there for 60 innings a year and get an ERA of 4 from and once in a while, you will get lucky with him and get an ERA of 3. The real coup for the Angels here is that Rivera, Fletcher and Hoffman are all under 30 and cheap. Not the kind of players one would expect a rebuilding team as the Cardinals to trade away.
The Redbirds, on the other hand, added some rather odd pieces. The first round pick is good and more likely to be a key component of first Cardinals team to make the playoffs (ETA 1991). It could be higher, but the crux of any rebuilding problem is that you have good, older players that you want to convert into good, younger players. The teams that have access to the best younger players are poor teams. The teams that want good, older players are traditionally the better teams in the league, which due to their success have less access to good, young players to deal. So, teams settle for lower draft picks than what they would really want for their players. It helps them in the long run, but they aren’t maximizing the value of their talent. Anyway, enough theory, let’s analyze the other two pieces of the deal. Denny Walling is a solid third baseman, though he hasn’t really shown it this season. Do you know who could really use Denny Walling? That’s right, the California Angels. Walling is older than any player received by the Angels except for Evans, but still found his way to the Cardinals, who are supposed to be rebuilding. (And if they were harbor illusions of contention, a look at the other three teams in the division should convince them otherwise.) Noles is the same pitcher that Hoffman is, except that he is making seven times the salary to be a replaceable reliever. I can see why the Angels made this deal, but the reasons other than to acquire a second first round draft choice for the Cardinals are far from clear.
Winner: California
Toronto receives Ps Juan Berenguer and Bob Knepper, LF Ron Kittle and CF Lee Mazzilli.
St. Louis receives P Floyd Youmans and St. Louis’s second round Amateur draft choice in 1986.
Alright, raise your hand if you thought the Blue Jays were ever going to be competitive, let alone this year. That’s what I thought. Nonetheless, the Blue Jays are poised to have their best season in CDL history, with a very realistic shot of winning a minimum of 75 games. (Maybe more if Mike Witt tears something in his arm.) Nonetheless, I think this trade is a lesson in the following point, If you make a mistake and someone else has to clean it up, don’t offer to take the mistake back from them. Did you realize that Bob Knepper makes $8,840,000 a year and has done so for quite a while? Did you also realize that he hasn’t been anything more than an average at best pitcher in the CDL since 1981. That’s a lot of money to pay for mediocrity, though in today’s society…
Pardon my digression, the real reason we are hear to take cheap shots at the ATR’s whipping boy. Juan Berenguer is better than the average reliever in terms of talent, but his results need some work. And in Toronto this year, it’s just gotten ridiculously ugly. Nonetheless, he should still be able to get that ERA down to around 4.50 if he can pitch closer to his career levels. Kittle, well, he’s useless. He has power, but brings nothing else to the table. If you lack the skills to hit .240, you have absolutely no value unless you are Ken Phelps. Lee Mazzilli can run and field and hit righties around league average, but really isn’t my idea of an every day outfielder.
For this hot, steaming pile of mediocrity, the Blue Jays turned over a draft pick and one of the pitching prospects in the league. While Youmans hasn’t exactly been lights out so far, he is only 22, has tremendous talent and assuming he doesn’t have Mike Witt disease, should team with Gooden to form the foundation of one of the best rotations in the CDL by 1990. As to the draft pick, the Cardinals were able to select Robby Thompson. Thompson should be one of the better second basemen in the league by 1990. St. Louis should be able to put 20 years of playoff futility to rest with a few more moves like this. Toronto on the other hand…well, perhaps one season where everything breaks just right sneaks them into the playoffs, then the long collapse back into the Dark Ages, like the Oakland Athletics.
Winner: Toronto
Milwaukee receives SS Shawn Dunston
San Diego receives CF Mike Anderson
WHY?!?!?!?!?!?!? Well, the Brewers were like the anti-Robin Hood stealing from the poor to give to the rich…kind of like the government when you think about it. Dunston is young, (only 23) and should be one of the better shortstops in the league for his decent bat and excellent glove. Now, I am aware of the fact that the Padres drafted Barry Larkin, which makes Shawn Dunston the shortstop redundant. And I am also aware that Shawn Dunston the outfielder is what a team does when they want to lose 100 games in a season. However, there was a third option, Shawn Dunston the second baseman. Dunston could have spent half a season in the minors learning to become a very good defensive second baseman and teamed up with Barry Larkin to provide one of the better keystone combinations in the CDL. Did this happen? No.
What happened was that, once again, the Padres made a panic trade for fear of having two players of value at one spot. Just like before, the Brewers swept in and made a killing. If the only offer you have for your 23 year old shortstop prospect is a mediocre 34 year old outfielder and you are not an outfielder away from contention, you wait. Or you convert. But what you don’t do is waste a young chip of rebuilding by trading it for an older, less valuable player.
Winner: Milwaukee
Minnesota receives LF Kal Daniels.
Cleveland receives Minnesota’s first and second round Amateur draft choices in 1987 and Minnesota’s first, second, third and fourth round Amateur draft choices in 1988.
There should be a handout you receive when you join the CDL. Page 1 should be a big sign, like you see at the zoo that says “DON’T FEED THE ANIMALS”. The CDL’s version of that sign should read, “DON’T TRADE WITH THE GROENINGS.” I mean, seriously, I’ve written about over 90 trades by this point in time, yet there is always someone who unwittingly falls into their Siren’s song. Kal Daniels can flat out hit. His defense is so-so, but I cannot imagine him not being one of the most dominant hitters of the 1990s in the CDL, and the late 1980s for that matter. So, the Indians, trade away their best and one of their youngest players for six draft picks. Of course, a low first round pick is the best of them and most of the players won’t likely make an impact in Cleveland. Really, it’s a sad, but often learned lesson of the CDL by the New Guy. Don’t trade with the Groenings, because your team will suffer and the ATR will tell you so.
Winner: Minnesota
Seattle receives C Ron Hassey
Atlanta receives 1B Jim Traber
This is a very shrewd move by the Mariners. Jim Traber is pretty useless. And the Braves should realize this, especially when they have Will Clark playing first base for them. I mean, Traber will never be a regular and unless he learns to do something else, like play third base and some outfielder, he won’t even be an acceptable bench player. The Mariners have a player like Will Clark, named Eddie Murray at first base, so Traber was obviously superfluous to them. And Hassey is a really smart pick up for them. Johnny Bench is about two months from exploding, and not in the good, 10 home runs in a month kind of way, but rather, in the 10 hits in a month kind of way. Hassey gives them a catcher to stick in there once that happens. Seattle might be the most improved team in the CDL this year after the Twins, but everyone expected the Twins to be good.
Winner: Seattle
Since there seems to be a complete lack of anything related to the CDL aside from Rookies of the Month being posted recently (the Scoop, of course, has fallen victim to that syndrome), the Scoop himself is here to help. I come before you with random observations from the CDL...
... has anyone ever tried -- and failed -- to rebuild more times than Houston? I mean, come on, Brian "breaks up" his team once every two years and comes out with the best record in the league with essentially the same core. Why can't he just accept the fact that he's good enough to compete without scrapping everything and spare us the punishment of those endless trading blocks?
... if you just met some random person on the street and found out that their last name just so happened to be Groening, would you hold it against them?
... are you as convinced as I am that Tony Brizzolara was not a real person, that Matt accidentally hit "generate fictional player" while perusing California's minor league system a while back?
... is there any sword more double-edged than the player development page? For example, last Wednesday I found that Andy Van Slyke's homer talent had increased to Brilliant and walked on air for a week, until Monday's sim revealed that the talent had dropped right back down. Yet Tom Henke's talent bump made him a B/B/B H/HR/BB pitcher, and Van Slyke's speed increased, so what was I to think of it? Good? Or bad?
... granted, six picks sure is a lot, but the Twins are going to be in the late twenties this year and next, and although a first and a second have merit, late 3rd and 4th rounders aren't too spectacular even if the draft has deepened in recent years. I say Kal Daniels is 23 and can hit for average and power, and can draw a walk as well as field and run. He could help any contender right now and hit .300 for the next 10 years, adding 30 steals and homers with a .400 OBP for good measure. I think the Twins got a deal on him, and the Indians did nothing to help their sorry pitching staff.
... do home runs have a direct relation to fan interest in OOTP5? I think they might, because my club leads the majors and I don't think a .500 record is quite enough to improve FI by a good 11 points in two months. If so, this is a brilliant added touch to a great game, because in real life, chicks dig the long ball, and we know that Canadian guys are too interested in Hockey to give a damn about the Jays.
... did you realize that Doyle Alexander is still only 35 and probably has another five years left in him? Remember when you owned this guy... admit it, you did... eight teams so far, and he's probably been involved in trade talks involving a dozen more.
... so were you snoozing like I was during Scott Sanderson's press conference? You know, the one where he announced that he had decided to be good? Brian Marshall chalks this up to Julio Franco. I call it dumb luck.
... wait so was it my job to tell Bill Butler that he wasn't Old Hoss Radbourn? I'm sorry, I dropped the ball. Seems like he got the message, though, slacking off to a paltry 5 GS in May.
... won't it be fun to watch Don Robinson and Jim Wright battle in the wins column all year long? My bet's on Robinson, because, you know, his owner isn't trying to trade him and rip the heart out of one of the CDL's best teams.
... hey Sam, remember when Dan Pasqua was a Pirate... and he sucked?
... has anybody else noticed that while California may be vastly underachieving at 35-18, and they may clearly be the class of the CDL in 1986, and they may have the best pitching staff you'll find anywhere, but you know what, they're tied for 23rd in homers. Eat that, Junior!
... so when you were looking at Sam's spiffy new franchise history thing, did you notice that four, count 'em, four teams have a worse overall winning percentage than the St. Louis Cardinals do historically?
... on the note of Samuel Stauder, who else here is really really really mad that this hillbilly from Western Massachusetts can rebuild a team that quickly that well in that tough of a division... and you can't. I know I'm wicked jealous, or as they say in Hicksfield, mighty jealous.
... when did Minnesota hire Bob Gibson as their Triple-A pitching coach? Currently four of the top six AAA headhunters play in the Twinkie system...
Bobby Bonilla (Mariners) and Robby Thompson (Cards) were chosen as Rookies of the Month in their respective leagues for the month of May.
Bonilla, 23, is getting more and more playing time at 3B at the expense of Floyd Rayforth. In May, he hit ,324/,352/,485 in 68 at-bats. While he hit no homeruns, he collected 5 doubles and 3 triples, helping him get 9 RBIs. Bonilla, the 13th player selected in the last Amateur Draft, is hitting an healthy ,340 for the season.
He finished ahead of the Rangers' Chuck Finley (2-2, 4,39) and the Indians' Kal Daniels (,276-1-8).
In the National League, second baseman Robby Thompson. runner-up in April, won easily in May with an amazing ,330/,393/,557 line in 97 At-bats. He hit 4 homeruns, 4 doubles, 4 triples, collected 18 RBIs and 8 walks. Thompson was a second round pick in the last Amateur Draft.
Teammate Jose Canseco (,223-3-11) and the Phillies' Paul Assenmacher (1-2, 2,92, 4 saves) were also considered.
With the third of the season now done, let's look quickly at the ROY races.
American League : Chuck Finley (6-3, 3,81) has to be considered the leader up to now, with no rookie batters sticking out. In fact, the leader in Runs Created, George Wright, was demoted to AA by the new Cleveland management. Some good prospects are worth watching though, like Wally Joyner, Mickey Tettleton and Paul O'Neill, in addition to Daniels (now with the Twins) and Bonilla.
National League : Robby Thompson (,321-7-31) is alone right now, taking advantages to injuries to Greg Gagne and Kelly Downs, and early struggles by stronger prospects, like Jose Canseco and Will Clark.
Well as the news conference broke in Cleveland. The Reporters were wondering if this owner would turn the franchise around. On everyone minds is will the Indians ownership trade star prospect Kal Daniels. Since getting the team and seeing that it is in such a mess. It will be a long run to get to the title for the Tribe. Expect more news as it break.
The CDL named yesterday its Rookies of the Month for April. The winners are Chuck Finley in the American League and Greg Gagne in the National League.
Finley, starting pitcher for the Texas Rangers, went 4-1 with a 3,12 ERA in 34,2 innings. He surrended 37 hits and 16 walks, while striking out 29 batters in the month. Finley, 23, was the 10th player selected in the last Amateur draft. He's one of the few bright spots on a struggling Texas Rangers team, who are only 9-16.
Finley finished ahead of George Wright of the Indians (,283-1-10) and Cory Snyder of the Yankees (,256-2-16).
In the National League, the Rookie of the Month race was dominated by the St. Louis Cardinals, who had the four best rookies. Greg Gagne, starting shortstop for the Redbirds, hit a robust ,309/,356/,526 in 97 April at bats. He didn't hit a ball out of the park, but got 11 doubles and 5 triples. He collected 10 RBIs. Gagne, 24 years old, was a 2nd round pick of the Giants in 1983. He went to St. Louis in the Pedro Guerrero deal.
His teammates Kelly Downs (3-1, 2,51), Robby Thompson (,313-3-13) and Jose Canseco (,253-3-14) were also considered.