The ATR strikes again. There is no need for a fancy introduction, since you have most likely just read the last ATR 21 only a few minutes earlier. (If you are reading this and have yet to read ATR 21, I recommend doing so before reading this. Reading the ATR out of order is hazardous to your mental health.)
Minnesota receives P John Candelaria
San Diego receives Ps Eric King, Bruce Ruffin, Mike McQueen and Paul Hartzell.
The juggernaut of the American League has reemerged and is rearming themselves for a stretch run that could lead to a seventh World Series appearance. Candelaria gives the Twins the ace they need to win in the postseason. He has turned back into the pitcher he was in the early part of his career after leaving Oakland. The only downside to adding Candelaria for the Twins is that he will be 1/5 of the Twins payroll until 1989. As long as no injuries befall him, the contract won’t kill the Twins as they are able to surround him with young, cheap talent who will keep the Minnesota Juggernaut rolling.
The question surrounding this deal is what did the Padres get for Candelaria. Well, first, the Padres got from under Candelaria’s large contract. Considering the Padres place in the NL West and financial position, trading an older pitcher like Candelaria is obviously the right move for them. McQueen will go into the rotation and fail like he has everywhere he has pitched. For a man of extraordinary talent, McQueen has never produce and likely won’t last in San Diego beyond the season. In fact, McQueen was probably a part of the deal only to defray Candelaria’s salary for 1986. Paul Hartzell is another salaried component of this deal. Hartzell was never a great pitcher and in many ways was a part of the decline of the first great Minnesota team. At his best, Hartzell was a league average pitcher…of course, there were many times Hartzell wasn’t his best and was a very hittable pitcher. If Hartzell is getting 200 innings a season, your team is generally not a contender. Eric King looks like he will be a first rate relief pitcher in the league. He had a rough start to 1986, but still has the talent to anchor the Padre bullpen for years to come. The other part of this deal is Bruce Ruffin. Ruffin needs to improve his talent to ever be a major league pitcher. So, essentially, the Padres admitted they made a big mistake with signing Candelaria to the contract they did and accepted a good young reliever in return for him. Honestly, I think the Padres could have gotten more talent in return for one of the best starting pitchers in the league.
Winner: Minnesota
Houston receives SS Milt Ramirez
Minnesota receives Atlanta’s second round Amateur draft choice in 1987.
Well, it’s obvious that the Astros were not trying to rebuild when they sent Tanana away, as they added a 36 year old shortstop in the form of Milt Ramirez. Ramirez can still hit the ball with great authority and get on base, but he isn’t much of a fielder. The real curiousity is why the Astros added Ramirez. They have Wade Boggs at third base, who is one of the best young hitters in the league, Toby Harrah is the starting shortstop and is still a fine offensive contributor and slick glove man and Marty Barrett is hitting around .340. I can see that Harrah is on the DL, but he only has two days left to his injury. This deal screams of panic. Of course, the price for a player of Ramirez’s talent was only a second round pick, so perhaps there is more to this than the ATR can see.
Winner: Houston
Chicago (N) receives P Steve Busby and Milwaukee’s third round Amateur draft choice in 1987.
Milwaukee receives Ps Lamarr Hoyt and Mike Caldwell and Chicago (N)’s second round Amateur draft choice in 1987.
The King is dead. I think we will all agree that Steve Busby is the greatest pitcher in CDL history. Of course, 1986 came and Busby fell apart. This year, he is 5-9 with an ERA of 5.66. In Busby’s three best seasons, if you added his ERAs together, they equal 4.56. Just think about that for a moment.
Now that you’ve thought about it, you can see that Busby has won his 300 games and burned his arm out. Inevitably, someone will give him big money this offseason to fill a hole in their rotation and will be disappointed. The Cubs obviously they feel that they can turn Busby around, but I don’t think that anyone has the magic to save his tattered arm. For him, they gave up the corpse of Mike Caldwell, who is more done than Busby, Lamarr Hoyt, who never was much of a pitcher and a second round pick. You know, the Cubs might have been better off sticking Hoyt in the rotation and crossing their fingers. Years ago, we all thought Busby would retire a Brewer, but unless they show some sentiment this offseason, Busby will end his career like most greats, vainly trying recapture the glory of his youth.
Winner: Milwaukee
Atlanta receives P Steve Ontiveros and San Francisco’s second round Amateur draft choice in 1988.
San Francisco receives Atlanta’s first round Amateur draft choice in 1987.
This deal is nearly as bizarre as the one where the Giants added pitching “great” Len Barker. Ontiveros is the rare breed of pitcher known as the swing man. Ontiveros can not only be a reliever, but also has the potential to be an excellent starting pitcher as well. While, Ontiveros has not been as effective as he was last season, he is still a first rate relief pitcher. Not only did the Giants give up Ontiveros, but they also threw in a second round draft pick to acquire Atlanta’s first round Amateur draft choice next season. I think someone felt that the Braves are not going to rally past the Phillies and Mets and win the NL East. I think that’s a foolish wager to make with an excellent pitcher like Ontiveros, especially when you are in the thick of the NL West and Wild Card races.
Winner: Atlanta
Toronto receives P John Franco.
Milwaukee receives Toronto’s first and second round Amateur draft choices in 1988.
So, you have Tom Henke, probably the best closer in the entire league and you have a number of holes on your team. How would you address these holes? I know I wouldn’t deal a couple of good draft choices for ANOTHER CLOSER. The Blue Jays compound their trading woes in the next edition of the ATR, so I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself. If your minor league system contains Barry Bonds, Danny Jackson and Charlie Kerfeld as your three best prospects (pre-Henke trade), you might want to keep those draft picks unless you are getting the final piece of your current year championship puzzle. The Blue Jays lack a way to add young talent to their organization for two seasons, but they have a nice closer. The closer is the last piece of the championship puzzle, not the first. You need to have a lead from your offense and starting pitching to be effective. Only Barfield and Van Slyke have the ability and youth to be current and future Blue Jay stars. I also think that any time you can get two draft picks for a closer, you have made a good deal. The Brewers see that they are rebuilding and have made a smart trade. The Blue Jays think that they can get a bunch of veterans together and win a quick division title. That kind of thinking sunk the Athletics and will sink the Blue Jays.
Winner: Milwaukee
The trading deadline has passed and the contenders have finally separated themselves from the pretenders. The ATR will devote the next three issues picking through the wreckage of these deadline deals, so you know who won, who lost and who crashed and burned. (Hint: They are north of the border and have a bird mascot.) Anyway, let’s look at some deadline deals.
Boston receives CF Dan Ford and MR Mike Madden.
San Francisco receives CF Brian Downing and Boston’s second round Amateur draft choice in 1987.
A deal between two teams that should have playoff aspirations, though only one of these teams improved themselves for the playoff run. The Red Sox felt they had a pressing need for a Center Fielder who could hit left handers. Considering that Jim Lefebvre was trotting out there before the deal, the Red Sox were correct. Dan Ford, while not the greatest gloveman in the league, can mash lefthanders. Madden is an acceptable reliever, you know, the kind that you can find late in the draft or in the free agency pool every season. In exchange for these solid players, the Giants received a second round pick. The pick should be late in the round at that, since there seems to be no way the Red Sox are not winning the AL East this year. Downing appears to have only been included in order to keep the Red Sox under the salary cap. To be honest, this, like many of the Giants’ deadline deals, appear to be deals of surrender.
Winner: Boston
Atlanta receives SP Frank Tanana
Houston receives Atlanta’s second and third round Amateur draft choices in 1987.
If you thought the last deal was strange, this deal is downright topsy-turvy. So, if I told you that one team traded away their second best starting pitcher and received a couple of draft picks for them and that one team had the best record in the CDL and the other team was under .500, would you believe that the best team in the CDL traded their second best pitcher in the league for a couple of late draft picks? I still don’t believe this one folks. Tanana, along with Jim Wright, provided a devastating 1-2 punch for the Astros. For some reason, the Astros traded away 2. Now, if the Astros received a top notch player in return, I could understand. But second and third round picks for Tanana. That’s ridiculous. Perhaps the Astros felt that Mike Witt was a reborn pitcher in Houston and that Tanana was expendable, but still, why would they give up a great pitcher for next to nothing. I think someone succumbed to deadline dealing pressure and didn’t think this through.
This deal does make some sense for Atlanta, since they are still in the NL East race, by virtue of the fact that all the teams in the NL East are wretched. Tanana gives them three top flight starting pitchers. If they all take their turn in the rotation and the Braves offense provides something, then the Braves could win the NL East and receive a sweep from the other playoff team of their choice.
Winner: Atlanta
California receives RF Gary Roenicke
Los Angeles receives SP Jamie Moyer, 3B Chris Brown, SP Steve Kline and California’s first round Amateur draft choice in 1987.
For most teams in the CDL, the windows are small. By windows, I mean seasons where a particular team could win the World Series if a few things go their way or some horrible tragedy doesn’t befall them. The Angels are a team nearing the end of a window. And that window nearly closed on them this season when star OF Ruppert Jones went out for the season with a Broken Hip. The Angels were in real trouble being pressed up against the salary cap and having no way to replace Jones’s offensive production from within the organization. Luckily for the Angels, they were able to acquire Gary Roenicke. Roenicke appears to have all the tools you could want in an outfielder, as he should hit for a high average, draw a high number of walks, hit for power and not embarrass himself in the field. Of course, Roenicke has wasted much of his potential and time in Los Angeles putting together seasons that are thoroughly average at best. But when you are the Angels in this situation, you hope that Dodger Stadium was masking his real level of offensive talent and he will burst upon the CDL 10 miles away in Anaheim.
For Roenicke’s wasted potential, the Dodgers received a large quantity of useful young talent. The first round pick they received won’t be in the upper half of the draft, but should still provide the Dodgers with someone who should be a regular in the league. Chris Brown has the potential to be an average third baseman offensively and provide some quality defense. Moyer is one of those players who is more famous than his talent, but in Dodger Stadium, he should be able to put together some seasons that won’t embarrass his family in a few years. The final piece of the puzzle is Steve Kline. Kline adds nothing to the Dodgers at the moment, but to see this future Hall of Fame pitcher in AAA is really disheartening.
Steve Kline was a first round pick for the Houston Astros in 1970. The Astros immeadiately plugged him into the rotation and Kline responded with a 16-10 record with an ERA of 3.07. Kline built upon this in his sophomore season by winning a career high 22 games (the only time in Kline’s illustrious career that he won 20 games in a season) with an ERA of 2.92. Kline was traded during the 1972 season for 3B Eric Soderholm, who also enjoyed a fine CDL career, mostly for the Milwaukee Brewers. Kline seemed to struggle in sunny California, going 16-16 in 1973 and 17-13 in 1974. The Angels had finally had enough of Steve Kline and sent him with Johnny Bench and P George Bell to the Washington Senators (now the Texas Rangers) for Milt May, Wilbur Wood and Eduardo Rodriguez. While 1975 was a disappointment, Kline rebounded with a very strong 1976 going 18-10. Kline continued to be a major force in the Ranger rotation until 1985. During these years, Kline was named to the AL All-Star Team twice (1979 and 1981). 1981 was Steve Kline’s best season. He went 18-9 with an ERA of 2.01. He was a strong candidate to win the Cy Young Award that year, but was denied by Steve Rogers of the Baltimore Orioles. In recent years, Kline has exhibited some decline with his ERA reaching over 3.5 in each of the last three seasons. This did not stop the Angels from offering Kline a one year deal worth $5,100,000. Kline continued to fade, putting together a 4.68 ERA in limited work this season. When he retires, most likely at season’s end, Kline will be honored with his rightful place in the Hall of Fame for his 251 victories and career ERA of 3.11.
Winner: Los Angeles
Atlanta receives MR Bob Lacey
Milwaukee receives OF/3B Darnell Coles
You know, it’s noble to see a team try and win a division title when it appears that they have a legitimate shot. However, if you are below .500 on the season, do you really think you have a legitimate shot at winning the World Series. There are four very strong teams in the NL Central and West, who have legitimate World Series dreams. Giving away one of the better prospects in the league for a middle reliever is a horribly short-sighted move by the Braves. Lacey is a solid, but unspectacular reliever having a very good season. You know, pretty much any reliever with some talent can put together 40 good innings. And that’s what Lacey has done. However, the same reliever that appears to be great can turn into a pumpkin in a drop of a hat. The Brewers realized this and capitalized on the situation. That’s what good rebuilding clubs do.
Winner: Milwaukee
San Francisco receives SP Len Barker
Oakland receives San Francisco’s second round Amateur draft choice in 1987.
Normally, the way this write up works is I scream and yell that one of the Groenings stole the pants of the new guy and didn’t have the decency to leave him a barrel. However, this is not a normal write up. For the first 20 ATR Reports, Oakland had never won a deal. They had come close on occasion, but never won. Well, Oakland has finally won a deal in the ATR’s eyes, thanks to new management turning the tables on San Francisco. For Len Barker’s career, he has ranged from bad to obscenely atrocious to occasionally leaving you wonder why the Athletics didn’t forfeit the game, rather than send him out there. He piles up the strikeouts and has some potential. However, he is prone to notoriously wretched for seasons at a time. Oakland, realizing that Barker would never amount to anything more than the guy who pitches home run derby, turned him into a useful pick. The player they get from the pick may never be good or even a major leaguer, but most likely, he will be a better pitcher than Len Barker.
Winner: Oakland (It feels so strange typing that.)
Starting pitcher Doug Drabek (Tigers) and rightfielder Jose Canseco (Cardinals) received the Rookie of the Month award in their respective league for the month of June. In a reversal of situation, the American League provided several good candidates, while the National League had only one serious candidate.
Drabek had a solid month, goind 2-1 in 5 starts, pitching 39,1 innings. He had a 3,43 ERA, striking 21 batters while giving up 37 hits and 7 walks. The 20th player selected in the last Amateur draft, Drabek, 23, started the year in the minors where he went only 1-2, but with a 2,18 ERA in 6 starts. He made his major league debut on May 19. For the season, he's 3-2 with a 3,73 ERA.
Other candidates receiving serous considerations include Chuck Finley of the Rangers(4-1, 4,05), Eric King (3-1, 1 save, 2,92) and Kal Daniels (,475-3-8 in 40 at bats) of the Twins and Wally Joyner (,306-4-18) of the Yankees.
In the National League, It was a one-man race, as Jose Canseco destroyed competition and opposing pitchers at a ,322/,400/,667 pace. Only 21, the former first overall pick in 1985 had 6 homers, 21 RBIs, 12 walks and 6 stolen bases in 87 At bats. He's hitting ,265-12-46 for the season.
The closest competitors were starter Scott Garrelts (Expos, 2-1, 2,57) and reliever Bobby Thigpen (Pirates, 2-1, 0,00).
ROY RACE UPDATE :
American League : Chuck Finley had a relatively tough month, issuing 27 walks, but he still managed to go 4-1, giving him a 10-4 record with a good 3,89 ERA, but an ordinary 1,55 WHIP. Kal Daniels created almost as many runs as the leader, Wally Joyner, in almost 200 less AB, so he's really worth watching if he can get regular playing time.
National League : Robby Thompson seemed to have a good lead, but Canseco's monster month, combined with his ugly sequence (,205/,278/,273 in June) made canseco the guy to catch.
With the trades coming faster than could be expected, the ATR has come to save the day and save you the work of analyzing the fast changing market. There are some real doozies in this batch of deals, so sit down, relax and as long as you didn’t trade a former first overall draft pick (Three of them changed hands in this issue of the ATR. THREE!!!), you have nothing to fear but future tounge lashings from the good old ATR.
Houston receives SP Mike Witt.
Toronto receives a hot, steaming pile of shit. (CF Tom Brunansky, MR Bob Moose, MR Urbano Lugo and 2B Jerry Manuel)
Wow! I mean, Mike Witt has been pretty terrible with his ERA of 7 and his contract of $6,500,000 for 5 years, but he is only 25 and has some of the best ratings/talent among pitchers of his age group. Plus, back in 1981, Witt was the first pick in the Amateur Draft. Leaving Toronto can’t hurt Witt, since Toronto is a notorious hitters’ park. However, why would the Blue Jays give up Witt for a hot, steaming pile of shit.
Initially, I was going to find one of my reviews of a trade that Chris Daley made for the Oakland Athletics and just say see Oakland v. _______ in ATR Volume __. Then, I started to look through my archive and realized that Chris never traded a player with star potential for a hot, steaming pile of shit. Because of this, it would be unfair to malign him with this deal.
For Witt and his potential, the Blue Jays received four “players.” The best player in the deal might be Tom Brunansky, who was the 10th pick in the 1981 draft. Of course, he must have suffered tremendous talent losses to be the shell of the player that he is today. He might be an acceptable 5th outfielder someday or the Centerfielder for the Blue Jays when the inevitable tankfest begins in 1988. Bob Moose used to be one of the best relievers in the CDL. For years, he toiled in anonymity in the Senators’ (That’s right, pre-Ranger, Washington Senators) and Royals’ bullpen, piling up fine career numbers. He was sent to Houston for a playoff run, returning him to big games for the first time in years. Of course, the Astros didn’t win and Bob Moose is now old and in AAA for Toronto, where he will never see the glory of his youth again. Urbano Lugo was also in this deal. He will need a miracle to be the last man in anyone’s bullpen, but has a guaranteed contract to 1990. Finally, the pile ends with Jerry Manuel. Manuel hit 49 Home Runs in the Launching Pad (Atlanta’s Fulton County Stadium) over the last two years, but doesn’t bring anything else to the table offensively and fields like a three-legged yak on LSD. This is what the Blue Jays were able to shrewdly parlay a former first overall pick filled with talent into.
Winner: Do I need to tell you?...Alright, I will. Houston
Milwaukee receives OF Glenn Braggs.
Montreal receives SP Eric Rasmussen.
Well, the Expos have made the first move in attempting to field a legitimate team that wins 81 games, loses in three straight in the NLDS and pick 19th overall instead of 10th. On the other hand, the Expos probably don’t have much hope of the Braves being this bad again for a forever, so you might as well go for it while you can and hope that the old adage that anything can happen in a short series comes true. Rasmussen is old, but still a solid pitcher with a contract that is neither pleasing nor offensive. Glenn Braggs is an athlete. As a child, I remember reading a comparison between Glenn Braggs and Kirby Puckett. If you just saw the two of them and knew nothing else about them and someone asked who is the better baseball player, everyone would say Braggs. Of course, we all know that Puckett is the Hall of Fame talent and Braggs is the guy who looks like a Hall of Fame talent. Here, Braggs doesn’t even look like a Hall of Fame talent. He’s young and if he improves could be a solid corner outfielder. If he doesn’t, he could have a long career playing for second division teams as a fourth outfielder.
Winner: Montreal
San Francisco receives RF Darryl Strawberry.
Philadelphia receives SP Joe Price, MR Eric Plunk and C Jeff Russell.
This is the only time in ATR history where the Phillies could have traded away former first overall pick Darryl Strawberry and not have made the clunker trade of the issue. This isn’t even the worst trade of a first round pick in this issue. However, this is the worst deal the Phillies could make. I believe that every deal needs to be framed in the following principle. A team has about 6,000 plate appearances and 1,400 innings a season that they can give their players to use. Whenever you trade one star for multiple players, you have to figure out whether you are better off keeping the star in his 225 innings or 650 plate appearances of high end production or are better off with in this case 300 innings and 650 plate appearances of medium level production. While filling those innings is nice, isn’t having perhaps the best young hitter in the league that has yet to emerge on the scene even better? I think so.
Strawberry is one of the most talented players in the league. He’s weak against lefties, but he walks and has amazing power. And he is definitely young enough to get a lot better. Joe Price is almost 30. Joe Price has lost a step or two in terms of talent. Joe Price is a ticking time bomb that will explode not in the Giants’ rotation, but the Phillies rotation. He could post an ERA of 4 next season with little trouble if he declines to his true talent. While his contract is cheap, he isn’t the kind of pitcher you want to get for Strawberry. Eric Plunk is a solid relief prospect, good hit prevention, lousy control. He’ll have good seasons and bad seasons. He isn’t someone you would build your bullpen around, but someone you wouldn’t mind being your last man or perhaps your next to last man. I admit, I like Jeff Russell. He’s been atrocious this season, but he has room to grow and should add both power and patience.
Winner: San Francisco
Pittsburgh receives RF Dave Winfield
Milwaukee receives OF Mickey Rivers and Pittsburgh’s second and third round Amateur draft choices in 1988.
While I expected Winfield to go to a contender, since he is still a talented hitter, I never expected him to show up in Pittsburgh to be a pinch hitter. Seriously, the Pirates have no need for Winfield at the moment. Their outfield consists of Andre Dawson, Tony Gwynn and George Bell. That’s probably the finest trio of flychasers assembled in the CDL today. I mean, Winfield could replace Pete O’Brien versus left handers, but that seems like a waste of resources. The Pirates will need young bodies to fill their roster in a few years, but those youngsters will be fueling the rise of the Brewers. Though considering that Winfield is only 34 and potentially bound for the Hall of Fame, one would expect that he would command a higher price from the Pirates. Nonetheless, the Brewers are committed to removing anything useful from their team to increase their chances of landing a player like Tom Glavine in next year’s draft.
Winner: Milwaukee
Pittsburgh receives SP Mario Soto
Philadelphia receives SP Bret Saberhagen
Hmm…you trade away your best young player for a pitcher to help you today, then you trade your ace for a washed up 22 year old who was a former first overall pick. For the life of me, I can not see the logic controlling these two decisions. They appear to be completely irrational when put together. Nonetheless, the Pirates make a nice recovery from Saberhagen losing his fastball somewhere between 1984 and 1986. Soto is one of the better pitchers in the league other than his contract. And if he doesn’t agree to a good deal, he’s gone at season’s end. Saberhagen is what happens when a pitcher loses some of his stuff. Almost every pitcher in the league walks a fine line between good and bad and Saberhagen has crossed over to bad. If the Phillies weren’t going to keep Soto at season’s end, then this wouldn’t be a bad deal. Of course, then why would you trade your best young player the day before. It’s a riddle wrapped in an enigma if you ask me…well, since you are reading this, you did ask me. Anyway, the Pirates now look like the team to beat for the World Series in 1986.
Winner: Pittsburgh
Out for the season with a ruptured tendon, Ronnie announces his retirement from the game of baseball. LeFlore cited his age of 38 and the damn ootp5 game for his having to hang 'em up.
"Damn game dropped my ratings right down making it impossible for me to have a comeback next year.."
Giants management noted that they had acquired the speedster from the Phillies during the 1983 season to replace the traded Gene Richards. While Groening could not recall the exact deal, he believed a second round pick was involved.
Highlights of LeFlore's career include a lifetime .277 batting average with 608 stolen bases. LeFlore's best year as a Giant was 1984 when he batted .298 with a .379 obp and 77 stolen bases. While certainly not a candidate for the hall, Leflore will be remembered as one of the great base stealers in cdl history. His 608 sb's are the third best among active players though Rickie Henderson is sure to pass him this year.